How fuel costs and sowing challenges will change price tags in stores: a detailed forecast

Fuel and production cost: should we expect a price jump? According to the Deputy Minister of Economy and Agriculture Taras Vysotskyi, there is no reason for panic. The share of fuel in the production cost of agricultural products ranges from 10% to 15%. This means that even a significant increase in fuel prices can add only 1–2% to the final price of products.

Most farms have formed stocks of fuel and seeds for several weeks, and in some places even months ahead, so no resource deficit is expected at the start.

Climatic challenges: winter without snow and field freezing President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation Leonid Kozachenko notes that this year's sowing will not be easy. Due to the lack of sufficient snow cover in winter, some of the winter crops suffered, forcing farmers to adjust plans and increase areas for spring crops.

The most difficult situation with winter crops is observed in the following regions:

• Kirovohrad: losses up to 30–40%;
• Vinnytsia: about 20–30%;
• Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Cherkasy: up to 20%.

However, on a national scale, these losses are not critical for food security.

Economic difficulties: fertilizers and "zero" profitability In addition to the weather, rising resource costs are putting pressure on farmers:

Mineral fertilizers: Prices for them soared following global gas prices (which increased almost twofold). Ukraine is dependent on imports of complex fertilizers.

Grain crisis: For the first time in two decades, growing wheat, rye, and corn has become effectively unprofitable. Only oilseed crops bring some income.

Personnel hunger: The labor shortage is one of the most acute issues. Even involving women in traditionally "male" professions in the sector does not allow for full vacancy closure.

How much will bread cost? According to Leonid Kozachenko's forecasts, the increase in production costs will inevitably affect the price of the main product.

Wheat bread: at the current price of 45–50 UAH, the cost may increase by at least 10 hryvnias.

Rye bread: may increase in price to 55 hryvnias.

Conclusion: will there be enough food? Despite all challenges — from weather to financial — experts are confident: Ukraine will fully provide itself with food. The domestic market will not feel a grain deficit. However, problems in the Ukrainian agricultural sector may resonate in African and Middle Eastern countries that are critically dependent on our exports.

Read more in the Ukrainian edition....